🇮🇳 Indian Markets: Steady Momentum

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🇮🇳 Indian Markets: Steady Momentum

🔹 Benchmark Indices

BSE Sensex closed at 84,058.90, up 303 points (+0.36%), while the NSE Nifty 50 ended at 25,637.80, up **88.8 points (+0.35%)**  .

This marked the fourth consecutive session of gains, highlighting sustained optimism  .

🔹 Sectoral Performance

Most sectors recorded gains, except IT, realty, consumer durables and FMCG, which lagged  .

Notably:

Oil & Gas surged ~1.2%

PSU Banks performed strongly (+0.5–1%)

Capital Goods, Healthcare, Power, Telecom also saw upticks  .

Mid- and small-cap indices outperformed, posting gains of +0.5–0.9%  .

🔹 Key Movers

Jio Financial Services surged ~4.4% to ₹326.65, after SEBI approved its broking JV with BlackRock  .

HDB Financial Services IPO attracted bids worth $19 billion (16.7 × subscription), marking it India’s biggest IPO of 2025 so far  .

Nestle India rose 1.15% to ₹2,457.75 but still remains ~11.5% below its 52-week high  .

Infosys fell ~0.4% to ₹1,608.60, underperforming peers amid subdued trading volumes  .

State Bank of India gained 1.05% to ₹805.40, less than its 52-week peak  .

Several stocks—Sangam, NDR Auto Components, Shree Global, Lloyds Steels, LT Foods—hit 52-week highs, signaling strength in underlying corporate fundamentals  .

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🔍 Market Themes

1. Global Cues & Foreign Flows

Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and optimism over U.S.-China trade developments boosted risk appetite  .

Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity turned positive, with inflows reaching around ₹12,594 crore day prior — a sharp reversal after earlier outflows  .

2. Technical Outlook

Nifty’s breakout above 25,500–25,600 range, with technical indicators pointing to a rising trend toward 25,800–26,000 next week. Support lies in the 25,400–25,500 band  .

3. Valuation & Profit-Taking

Despite robust movement, valuations are slightly elevated — prompting selective profit-booking in certain financials  .

Brokerages remain upbeat, forecasting the Nifty to touch record highs in July, supported by stable macro factors, domestic investment, and policy tailwinds  .

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🌍 International Markets & Macro Trends

🏛 US–China Trade & Rare‑Earth Deal

U.S. & China reportedly agreed to expedite rare-earth shipments, easing tensions; S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs on these positive trade breakthroughs  .

Future momentum hinges on progress across multiple trade negotiations and removal of U.S. “revenge taxes” — key for global tech and manufacturing investors  .

💱 Currency & Safe-Haven Movements

A weaker U.S. dollar and reduced demand for traditional safe havens like Treasuries and USD suggest a structural global shift in asset preference  .

Global cross-asset trends show that commodities and international equities have outperformed U.S. markets in 2025  .

🌐 The “Great Rotation”

MRB Partners labels the ongoing shift away from U.S. equities toward emerging and developed markets—including India, Europe, and Japan—as the “Great Rotation”, driven by weaker dollar, higher yields, and superior earnings abroad  .

🛢 Middle East: Conflict Aftermath

Despite a brief Israel-Iran flare-up, the cessation of hostilities kept oil prices stable (~$67/barrel), calming inflation concerns globally  .

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📈 India Outlook & Investment Perspective

✅ Key Bullish Drivers for India:

RBI policy support, easing inflation, and stable GDP growth scenarios.

Renewed domestic investment, especially through PSU banks, oil & gas, and financial services.

Momentum in IPO space (e.g., HDB Financial) signaling robust market depth.

⚠️ Watchouts:

Elevated valuations may trigger intermittent profit-taking, especially in financial and big-cap segments.

Global uncertainties—such as renewed trade friction, Fed rate decisions, or geopolitical flare-ups—could weigh on sentiment.

🔁 Portfolio Strategy:

Overweight high-conviction sectors: Oil & Gas, PSU Banks, select IT names anticipating earnings rebound.

Stay agile: Small-cap and mid-cap exposure is rewarding, but caution warranted at fresh highs.

Select “stock-specific” opportunities, with focus on reputed names—e.g. RIL, ICICI Bank—while ride-on momentum persists  .

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🧩 Takeaways For Readers

1. Markets in gear, backed by global catalysts and technical breakouts.

2. FPI money turned positive—domestic flows remain strong.

3. Global rotation away from U.S. opens window into emerging themes.

4. India well-placed, but vigilance recommended over elevated valuations.

5. Earnings, macro policy, trade updates remain key situational themes.

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✍️ Suggested Blog Structure

1. Headline Snapshot – Highlight key index moves.

2. Deep Dive: India – Sector breakdown, key stocks, IPO news.

3. Macro Scene – Global trade, rotation, commodity and currency moves.

4. Technical & Strategy – Chart commentary and tactical tips.

5. Risks & Watchlist – What could derail the rally?

6. Stock Picks & Ideas – Based on current momentum and valuation.

7. Looking Ahead – Expected catalysts: Fed minutes, July RBI meet, global trade updates.